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Here is the top five players on Brendan's NBA Draft Big Board.
The NCAA Tournament is over, the NBA Playoffs are underway, and almost all potential first round picks have made their decision to declare for the draft or return to school. That being said, it’s time for the first official 2014 NBA Draft Big Board of the year. This is not a mock draft, rather it’s my personal ranking of the first round’s talent. In other words, just because I have a player ranked at a certain number doesn’t mean I think he will get drafted there. All teams are looking for different things in the draft. Therefore, not every team is going to take the best available player. Let’s get it started:
1. Jabari Parker – Duke
Parker is the most NBA ready player in this draft. At 6’8″ and 240 pounds, with the ability to score in a variety of ways, Parker can step in and impact an offense immediately. He has exceptional footwork for a nineteen year old. He can stretch the floor out with his shooting threat. And he can also keep defenders honest with his natural scoring instincts that allow him to get into the lane and create. Whether it’s scoring along the perimeter or using his extremely impressive handles to get to the rim, Parker gets it done offensively.
However, the main knock against Parker is his defense. Parker will definitely need to improve his defensive game, especially in the post, in order to be a star at the next level. Being a liability on the defensive side of the ball will limit his playing time. However, Parker shows a desire to learn and grow as a player, so teaching him shouldn’t be too hard. The other knack on him is his athleticism. A little extra bounce or quickness wouldn’t hurt. But what Parker lacks in athleticism he makes up for with his versatile scoring abilities.
The other thing that could keep Parker from going first overall is his potential. Since he’s NBA ready right now, there are questions about his ceiling. Guys like Wiggins and Embiid aren’t as skilled or developed as Parker, but their ceilings may be higher. That means they’ll take time to adjust to the NBA, but they have a greater potential due to their athleticism, etc.
Lastly, Parker is a great kid. It sounds strange to write in this post, but I think it will go a long way in terms of where he’s drafted. The way he handled his decision to leave Duke after one year says a lot about his character. I’m not saying the other potential top picks are head-cases. But Parker shows a maturity beyond his age.
2. Andrew Wiggins – Kansas
Wiggins can also score in a multitude of ways. The main aspect of his game that makes him such an intriguing prospect is his athleticism. He can just about jump out of the gym.
And he’s also extremely long. That asset usually leads to success for players. Through his athleticism, scoring in the paint becomes easier for Wiggins. His ball-handling skills aren’t outstanding. But his length allows him to get from the perimeter to the rim, and his athleticism allows him to finish or draw a foul.
I’ve seen his length and athleticism combine in the best way through his second-leap abilities. They give him the chance to rack up rebounds, as well as put shots back in the hoop. Countless times this season I watched Wiggins jump as high on his second jump as he did on his first. Each time he lays it up at the rim, he’s extremely quick to get back up there and tap it in.
On top of his athleticism, Wiggins’ defense makes him an intriguing choice at first overall. He can guard multiple positions, primarily the 2, 3, and 4. Additionally, his aforementioned length and athleticism make defense even easier for him. As I’ve mentioned before, I’m a really big fan of the Paul George comparison. Wiggins plays NBA defense right now, and his offensive game is even more advanced than George’s was in his rookie season. A long, athletic wing who can get it done on both sides of the ball are traits that make up an NBA All-Star.
In order to be a star in the NBA, you need to have a desire to take the game over with the ball in your hands. My main knock on Wiggins is his lack of a killer instinct. The great players possess it, and I haven’t seen it in Wiggins. He showed some signs of it a few times at Kansas, but not enough to convince me he truly has it. Players with killer instincts, like Kobe Bryant, demand the ball down the stretch, aren’t afraid to take the big shot, and don’t shy away when the pressure is on. If Wiggins can prove he has that, he can be a star.
3. Joel Embiid – Kansas
Centers are hard to come by in this draft class, and none match the potential of Embiid. Not many prospects do either. If Embiid can look as good as he did this season with only three years of basketball experience under his belt, his ceiling is incredibly high. For his size, Embiid has great mobility and coordination. He looks much more skilled than a guy who’s only been playing for a few years.
The most intriguing part of Embiid’s game, to me, is his shooting ability. He’s not a lights out shooter by any means, but he’s shown he has some midrange shooting in his arsenal. He’ll be a defensive nightmare for defenders if he can knock down shots, and use a wide range of shifty post moves to score.
The Cameroon native is a force in the paint both offensively and defensively. His size clogs the lane, but his length and shot blocking abilities are second to none.
The main concern with Embiid is obviously his back. I love his game and potential, but if I’m a GM, I have a hard time taking a 20-year-old seven footer with back problems. How Embiid checks out with doctors at the combine will reflect where he gets drafted. The last thing a team wants to do is take Embiid over Parker and Wiggins, only to see Embiid plagued by injuries throughout his career, a la the Blazers’ decision to take Greg Oden over Kevin Durant.
4. Dante Exum – Australia
At 6’6″ and 190 pounds, Exum’s frame is a spitting image of Michael C arter-Williams, the soon-to-be NBA Rookie of the Year. Entering last year’s draft, scouts criticized Carter-Williams strength and his outside shooting. The same is the case for Exum.
But Exum does a lot to make for his lack of strength and shooting. With a 6’9″ wingspan, two inches longer than Carter-Williams’, Exum is a natural at getting into the lane and creating scoring with his length, or setting up his teammates with his point guard instincts. While Carter-Williams was more slithery, Exum uses quickness to elude defenders. His first step is exceptionally quick. Regardless of how he does it, Exum is a scorer. He’s versatile and a nightmare for point guard defenders because of his length.
Exum likes to get out in transition. He’s a great finisher, whether it’s on a fast-break or in a half-court set. As seen in the video, Exum can shoot, but his shot lacks consistency. If he can display a consistent jumper, especially from three, in workouts, he has a chance to go second or third overall.
The two biggest problems with Exum: strength and competition. At just 190 pounds, Exum definitely needs to add muscle to his skinny frame. Carter-Williams succeeded this year at just 185 pounds, but that doesn’t guarantee anything for Exum. GMs are going to want to see a bulkier Exum when the season starts. Most importantly, Exum’s lack of competition makes it hard to project his NBA potential. Australia’s competition is obviously inferior to what the NCAA has to offer. Exum played well against the likes of Jabari Parker and Julius Randle and the Nike Hoop Summit (video above), but that’s just one game to go off of. Exum’s workouts against other prospects will be key in determining his draft stock.
5. Noah Vonleh – Indiana
Vonleh and Randle are neck-and-neck for this spot. After seeing Vonleh’s measurables at the combine, though, I couldn’t put him under Randle.
A 6’9″ power forward with a 37-inch vertical leap and a jump shot is almost impossible to pass on. He’s an excellent rebounder, and oh yeah, and this is what the draft's biggest hands look like.
I like the Chris Bosh comparison. Vonleh is a few inches shorter than Bosh, but he possess the shooting threat that spaces the floor. Vonleh is a terrific rebounder thanks in part to his length. That length, along with this athleticism, also assists in his great shot blocking abilities.
While Vonleh shows a wide range of post moves to score in the post, he doesn’t look polished just yet. A more refined game will come with time. Along with his work in the post, Vonleh definitely needs to bulk up. Vonleh appears rather lanky at 245 pounds. Solidifying his frame with some added muscle will go a long way in helping Vonleh become a consistent scorer down low.
Vonleh is a handful for opponents on both ends of the floor, which coaches will love. If he can show a more consistent jump shot, and develop strength and polish for post-ups, Vonleh has a chance to be a star in the NBA. It will be toss up between Vonleh, Randle, and Gordon for which power forward is off the board first. I’m torn between Randle and Vonleh, but I’ll give Vonleh the edge for now.
To see players 6-30 on Brendan's Big Board follow this link.
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