I did plenty of research, looked at plenty of players, did
too many mock drafts to count (what kills more time during a boring summer
afternoon than a mock draft?) and that was the motto I came out with entering
draft day of my Screw T.O. fantasy league draft.
The league name dates itself, as it was created in grade
school with three of my friends in my dad’s home office. It’s the league for
which I am commissioner, and as I sat on my deck, eating pizza and enjoying the
company of my best friends and fellow league opponents, that was what kept
running through my mind: “Luxury at a thin position.”
When the draft began on a beautiful late-August night, I
believed that piling up first and second-tier running backs in the early rounds
was the way to go. My theory made sense. The running back position has the
least amount of elite talent and the talent dramatically drops off as early as
round four or five.
This alarmed me, and with the fourth-pick in my draft, I
took Tampa Bay Buccaneers back Doug Martin. In the second round, I took the man
I deemed as a touchdown machine, Stevan Ridley. In round three, I continued the
unorthodox by selecting Maurice Jones-Drew, who was entering a contract season
and had “something to prove.”
Bust, bust, bust.
My best back out of that group was Jones-Drew who ranked 19th among fantasy backs.
Ridley had a four-game stretch in which he hit double-digit points, but did not
exceed eight points in any other contest. Martin injured his shoulder in Week 7
and missed the rest of the season and was struggling beforehand.
By virtue of a great trade that landed me Matthew Stafford
and DeMarco Murray, I managed to make the playoffs, but managing might have
been an understatement. I squeaked in. I went 7-5 and won three games by
scoring less than 70 points and won a lousy division. I was the benefactor of
extreme fantasy luck and my strategy left me thin at other positions and my
opponents took advantage.
Thank goodness I didn’t write a draft strategy guide that
year. But, that’s the beauty of fantasy football. We can look back and
reassess. I’m going to barrage you with plenty of my opinions and strategies
and I’ll give you a handful of the players who fit my mindset. But before I
begin, here are some general guidelines that I advise anyone.
·
Using ESPN or Yahoo rankings are a great guide,
but don’t let the rankings dictate your draft. If you like somebody, take him.
A person in the Screw T.O. league took LeVeon Bell in round three and I almost
fell out of my chair. Not only did Bell become a solid back by year’s end, he
scored one more point that Martin and Ridley (my first two picks) combined.
·
If there’s someone you don’t like one bit, don’t
take him if he falls farther than he should. There’s a reason he’s falling.
Case in point, Mike Wallace. I didn’t want Wallace at all, but he ended up
falling into the double-digit rounds and I snagged him. I thought it could be a
steal, but I was dead wrong. He scored only 117 points, fewer than Keenan
Allen, Riley Cooper and Marvin Jones, guys I could have gotten in the same
round.
·
I say this to everyone. Do not take a kicker or
a defense until the final three rounds. I get it. Seattle’s defense is dominant
and Matt Prater hits 60-yard field goals, but don’t pass up on a depth running
back or wide receiver because of it. The difference between Stephen Gostkowski
(last year’s best kicker) and Dan Carpenter (the 10th best kicker)
is 30 points. The only thing that matters with a defense is
turnover-capability, a crap-shoot to begin with, and special teams. Remember, a
shutout with no turnovers or sacks equals 10 points.
·
Save your deepest sleeper for your last pick. I
know I devalued kickers and defenses, but get those two positions done before
you take a big-time sleeper. And it’s OK to take a guy who is ranked so low you
can’t find him on your cheat sheet. We all need to splurge every once in a
while. Just don’t be that guy taking Brett Favre.
·
Don’t over-think the bye week. I’ve seen too
many instances where a person ponders a pick based off of bye week. Who cares?
With those general guidelines out of the way, let’s get into
my specific strategies.
Get a running back in
the first two rounds – I know I might have discouraged you with my horror
story of last season’s draft, but the facts remain the same. Only five running
backs scored more than 200 fantasy points last season: Jamaal Charles, LeSean
McCoy, Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch and Knowshon Moreno. Lynch just ended a lengthy contract holdout and is coming off of back-to-back seasons with more
than 300 carries (beware of wear-and-tear). Moreno is going from Peyton Manning
in Denver to Ryan Tannehill in Miami and entered minicamp out of shape. The
former three, plus Adrian Peterson are the four elite backs who you can start
with confidence every week. That’s not to say there isn’t talent out there, but
there isn’t a lot. Along with those four, Arian Foster (remember him?) Eddie
Lacy, Zac Stacy, Giovani Bernard, DeMarco Murray, Reggie Bush (especially in
PPR formats), Frank Gore, Le’Veon Bell, Andre Ellington (more on him later) and
Alfred Morris are the only guys I believe can be relatively reliable starting
backs. I say relatively because they aren’t elite, but they should give you at
least eight quality starts in a 13-game regular season.
The point is, running back is too thin of a position to wait
until round three to take. I listed 14 backs who I have a good amount of
confidence in starting (excluding the flex spot) in my weekly lineups. Most
fantasy football leagues have 10 or 12 teams in it. You do the math. Don’t be
stuck with Ryan Matthews and Shane Vereen as your top-two backs.
Quarterback, the
unending conundrum – Truthfully, I’m still not sure how I’m going to handle
this position come draft day (Aug. 10 for the Screw T.O. league, all are
welcome). Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning are the three best
players and you can’t go wrong with either of them (although a tip, Manning has
to face the entire NFC West, plus the Patriots and Bengals). But what do you do
if you don’t get one of those guys? Well, the difference between Cam Newton
(the third-ranked QB) and Tom Brady (the 13
th-best QB) is 41
points. There isn’t a large disparity
among the quarterbacks once you get out of the elite group. In his draft day
manifesto, Matthew Berry says to be “one of the first people to take a
quarterback, or the last.” Although I understand Berry’s point, I think I’d
still rather take Andrew Luck a few rounds earlier than Tony Romo or Tom Brady.
There is tremendous value with getting a Romo, Brady or even
Phillip Rivers in the 10th round, but there are a few players I’d
consider breaking that strategy for: Luck, Matt Stafford and Matt Ryan. Luck is
only getting better as a pro, while his offensive line and running game remain
stagnant in mediocrity. If the Colts want to make the postseason, Luck will
have to throw for 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns. Stafford is a gun-slinger and
although he is in a new system under Jim Caldwell, he has too many weapons to
not succeed. Ryan threw for over 4,500 yards without Roddy White and Julio
Jones and a porous offensive line. Ryan will be the biggest steal of the draft
if you can get him in the later rounds.
I got a top RB, but
how do I fill out my depth? This is a tougher question to answer than you
might think, because after the top-14, it gets harder to find any safe
selections. However, there are a few sleepers who could develop into top-15
backs.
Andre Ellington might be the best value at running back.
He’s not well-known and plays in a pass-happy system in Arizona, but Ellington
is a slashing back who is very good at catching passes out of the backfield.
With Rashard Mendenhall gone, Ellington will get an opportunity to be a
bell-cow back in the desert.
Toby Gerhart is another guy I feel pretty good about. He
wasn’t anything special in Minnesota, but keep in mind he was playing
second-fiddle to Adrian Peterson. Jacksonville doesn’t have anyone who can run
between the tackles and the offensive line should be better.
Rashad Jennings is someone I like as well. The Giants tried
the David Wilson experiment and it failed miserably. Wilson may cut into
Jennings’ carries and rookie Andre Williams could find a place in the backfield
too, but Jennings will get the starters reps. Also, Jennings was the 22nd-best
running back last season with only 163 carries.
A few other guys who I like, but won’t elaborate on: Joique
Bell, Pierre Thomas, Danny Woodhead and
Khiry Robinson. None of these guys are locks, so the best way to fill out your
depth is to take a bunch of guys who are either in good systems, with good
offensive lines and/or will get a good chunk of carries. In the
running-back-by-committee (RBBC) NFL, finding guys who can start in the later
rounds is key.
Wide receiver is
loaded, but getting an elite guy will give you a noticeable advantage – If
you can get a stud wide receiver like Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Dez Bryant or
Antonio Brown, it makes your draft much easier. The stress of having a loaded
receiving group lessens. You can spend more picks on sleepers like Cordarrelle
Patterson, Kendall Wright and Emmanuel Sanders and not feel concerned about it
because you’ve got that top guy.
There are plenty of consolation prizes outside of those five
guys, though. Julio Jones will bounce back. Jordy Nelson is the most underrated
stud in fantasy football. Alshon Jeffrey is a freak. Vincent Jackson and Larry
Fitzgerald are number-one wide outs who might not go until rounds four or five.
21 wide receivers scored at least 130 points last season. Get two of those guys
in the first seven rounds and you’re sitting pretty.
The drawback to wide receivers is that the sleepers are
pretty tough to predict. There are so many guys who can breakout because of
talent or system change, but just can’t do it. Denarius Moore was a popular
late-round pick because he was the only capable receiver (at least we thought)
in Oakland. He scored 95 points all season. Riley Cooper, who was talked more
about for his racist comments than his playing ability, scored 128.
I already listed my big three sleepers above, but a few
other guys I like are T.Y. Hilton, Golden Tate, Eric Decker, Terrance Williams
and DeAndre Hopkins. Victor Cruz, Randall Cobb, Michael Crabtree and Wes Welker
will be underestimated because of injury and disappointing 2013 seasons, so
don’t be afraid to snatch them up if they drop.
Be selective about
your tight ends and don’t overdraft – Tight end is an intriguing position.
Jimmy Graham is obviously the best choice. And just so you know, he is worthy
of a first-round pick.
Remember my stat about the 21 wide
receivers who scored more than 130 points last year? Only Graham, Vernon Davis
and Julius Thomas scored more than 130 points.
Nine tight ends scored more
than 100 points. I’d advise taking your second or third wide receiver before
taking a tight end, depending on who’s available.
There are a handful of guys who have a lot of upside. Jordan
Cameron could be an emerging stud in 2014. Greg Olsen is a steady option and
should get more targets with the lack of weapons on the outside for Carolina.
Dennis Pitta is returning from a knee injury and he and Joe Flacco had a good
connection in the past. My biggest sleeper is Kyle Rudolph. Norv Turner is the
new offensive coordinator in Minnesota. Guess who was Cleveland’s OC last
season? Norv Turner. Guess who broke out in 2013? Jordan Cameron. And the
quarterback situations are similar. Rudolph will be a guy who has the potential
of being a top-10 tight end who won’t get drafted until the double-digit
rounds.
So there it is . I have spilled my mind out to you with
plenty of fantasy football insights that will hopefully help you and me in our
respective drafts. To those of you I will be drafting with, try not to steal
too many of my sleepers.
My last piece of advice is to be your own fantasy player.
Just because Matthew Berry thinks one way doesn’t mean you can’t deviate from
the expert path. After my 2013 fantasy season, the only thing I’m confident
about in fantasy football is that I am the farthest thing from a fantasy
football expert. Some ideas work, some don’t. And that’s the beauty of the
game.
Be sure to follow Matt on Twitter (
@RealMattBarbato)
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