Tom Brady Is Still Elite

 

By: Matt Barbato (@RealMattBarbato)

The 2013 AFC Championship game between the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots was supposed to be another epic battle between Hall of Fame quarterbacks Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. But, the Broncos had other ideas and controlled the entire game en route to an eventual beating at the hands of the Seattle Seahawks in MetLife Stadium.

That game not only crowned Denver as champions of the weaker AFC, but also sparked the conversation about the losing quarterback’s ability. Brady’s performance itself wasn’t worthy of dethroning him from the ranks of the top-tier quarterbacks --he went 24-of-38 with 277 yards and one touchdown -- but after a less than staggering 2013 regular season, during which he threw only 25 touchdowns (his lowest total since 2006), many were claiming Tom Brady was no longer an elite quarterback.

The “eliteness” of a quarterback is something that has been debated more-and-more over the years. Perhaps it started in 2011, when Eli Manning made a decree of eliteness (and then proved it by winning the Super Bowl that season), but for years, football fans have tried to assemble this group of superb quarterbacks. While younger quarterbacks like Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick were storming the palace of the elite gun-slingers, Brady was being shoved out by some football pundits.

For the past two seasons, I have ranked the top 32 quarterbacks after season’s end. My top three last season were Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Tom Brady. Yes, Brady was listed higher than Wilson, or Aaron Rodgers, or Tony Romo or Cam Newton and others. The point I made in February and will make in more detail below is that although Brady’s numbers may have declined, his status as an elite quarterback hasn’t changed.

Numbers don’t always tell the story: Many people look at Brady’s 2013 regular season as a sign of his regression. Yes, 2013 was one of the worst years of his career, but how much is that really saying? Brady completed only 60.5 percent of his passes, the second-lowest percentage of his career, but also threw 628 passes, the second-highest total of his career and fifth-most in the league. Unless a quarterback is incredibly accurate, a higher volume of throws usually results in a lower completion percentage. Brady threw for 4,343 yards (sixth in the NFL) and 25 touchdowns (11^th in the NFL) and only threw a touchdown on four percent of his attempts last season. These numbers are uncharacteristic of Brady, but without completely devaluing the statistic, here are some quarterbacks who had more touchdowns than Brady in 2013: Andy Dalton, Phillip Rivers, Matthew Stafford and Matt Ryan. Ryan Tannehill and Carson Palmer weren’t far behind with 24 touchdowns.

A telling stat from last season was that Patriots receivers were tackled at the 1 yard line eight times, three more times than the next highest team. If half of these completions were touchdowns, Brady would have ranked 8th in the NFL in TDs. 

There’s more to a touchdown than just a quarterback throwing the ball. Brady’s touchdown statistic is misleading and shows that what’s being put around Brady hasn’t been up to par with previous rosters.  

It is also quickly forgotten that in 2012, Brady threw for 4,827 yards, 34 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. That was easily Brady’s third-best statistical season of his career. He ranked in the top-three among quarterbacks in yards, touchdowns and Total QBR that season.

The group around Brady hasn’t been great since 2011, but last year hit rock bottom: It’s hard to argue that the wide receiver and tight end groups surrounding Brady didn’t have an effect on Brady’s numbers in 2013. The Patriots thought Danny Amendola would be a suitable replacement for Wes Welker, but injuries plagued the speedy wide out and he shifted in and out of the lineup. Brady’s only reliable wide out was Julian Edelman, who caught 105 passes for 1,056 yards and six touchdowns in his breakout season. Brady was also without his favorite red-zone target in Rob Gronkowski, who missed nine games with multiple injuries.

New England hoped for big years debuts from rookies Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson, but neither panned out as a dependable second or third option.

It was the perfect storm in a sense. Without Welker, Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, Brady was forced to adjust to three rookies, a newly signed free agent and two tight ends, Michael Hoomanawanui and Matthew Mulligan, who aren’t known as pass-catching tight ends.

Certainly, Brady deserves some responsibility for the problems in the passing game and he has done a lot with very little in the past, but the Patriots organization did him no favors by letting Welker walk, assuming Gronkowski would stay healthy and failing to bring in any other veterans besides an unstable Amendola (who had only been in the league for four seasons upon signing him).

The good news is Brady will have an entire offseason to work with these new receivers and the addition of Brandon LaFell will, at the very least, give Brady an experienced wide out to work with alongside Amendola (when healthy) and Edelman.

Before you attribute Brady’s low numbers to a regression, be sure to take a look at the outside circumstances first.

Success does not lie: Many have said the Patriots are an overrated franchise that is annually over-hyped. The rationale behind that is because they haven’t won a Super Bowl since 2004. The even more ludicrous argument is that this falls on Brady more than anyone else. Since when does two Super Bowl appearances and five AFC Championship games in the past eight seasons make a franchise or a quarterback overrated?

Brady has been one of the most successful quarterbacks since 2004, when he won his last Super Bowl. In those following eight seasons (excluding 2008 when he injured his knee), Brady has led the Patriots to a combined record of 108-37 in the regular season and playoffs, a .744 winning percentage. To compare, Peyton Manning has a 109-34 record and a .762 winning percentage. Brady has one less win than Manning in those same eight seasons (Manning missed all of 2011 with a neck injury), yet only Brady seems to be the one falling out of the elite ranks. That span also includes six regular seasons with at least 12 wins and a perfect, 16-0 regular season.

During that same stretch, the Pats haven’t had a season with less than 10 wins, which is extremely impressive when considering the constant parity that exists in the NFL. New England has won the AFC East division in every season except 2008, when the Miami Dolphins accidentally won 11 games behind Tony Sparano and Chad Henne.

Brady’s numbers may be declining, but that regression happens to every quarterback with age, especially when the roster around him is inadequate like it was in 2013 and could be in 2014. Yet, despite the tough circumstances, Brady continues to put up consistent top-10 statistics in a league where throwing the ball is rapidly becoming more popular. Until Brady’s numbers consistently decrease in accordance with a drop off in his team’s performance, he is still an elite quarterback.

Agree or disagree with Matt thinking Tom Brady is still elite? Leave a comment below the link.

Be sure to follow Matt on Twitter (@RealMattBarbato)

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